Effect of Urbanization and Poverty on General Fertility Rate: A Spatial Analysis at District Level in Thailand

Abstract

This study investigates how urbanization and poverty are associated with the general fertility rate in Thailand. Using both global and local spatial analyses, this study explores these relationships across national and local levels. Utilizing both ground-based and satellite data, the spatial analyses reveal that static urbanization poverty levels are negatively correlated with birth rates at the national level. Thailand’s capital—Bangkok—shows the lowest level of fertility, while rural districts record the highest. The analysis at the local level shows considerable spatial heterogeneity. The birth rate in urbanized areas like the Eastern Economic Corridor and the outer ring of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region is higher than the national average. On the other hand, the birth rate in stagnant and poor rural areas is still lower than the national average. A positive correlation between dynamic urbanization and birth rates in rapidly urbanizing rural districts is noteworthy. The analysis indicates that the environment in rapidly developing rural districts is more favorable to birth rates compared to fully urbanized and stagnant rural districts. The results suggest that a comprehensive regional development plan to modernize vast parts of Thailand where rurality remains predominant is vital in stopping further decline in the national birth rate.