การพยากรณ์อนุกรมเวลาจำนวนผู้เยี่ยมเยือนจังหวัดปทุมธานี

Janthima Konthong; Vadhana  Jayathavaj

Authors

Janthima Konthong Assistant Professor in Faculty of Business Administration and Accountancy at Pathumthani University
Vadhana Jayathavaj Associate Professor Dr. in Faculty of Allied Health Sciences at Pathumthani University

Keywords:

Forecasting, Time series, Number of visitors, Pathum Thani, COVID-19

Abstract

This research aims to study and compare the efficiency of forecasting models for the number of visitors to Pathum Thani Province, categorized into domestic and foreign visitors. Annual secondary data from 2011 to 2024 were utilized. The experimental design consisted of two scenarios: using the complete dataset and excluding the 2020–2022 period to mitigate the impact of outliers caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecasting models evaluated included Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and Grey Models (GM(1,1) and EPC).

The results indicated that for Thai visitors, the Holt-Winters Multiplicative model with the excluded COVID-19 period was the most appropriate, yielding the lowest MAPE of 11.82%. For foreign visitors, the Grey Model EPC with the excluded COVID-19 period provided the highest accuracy with a MAPE of 4.96%. The study found that including data from the pandemic period led to model overfitting and high forecasting errors. The forecast for 2025 estimates 3,569,622 Thai visitors and 414,076 foreign visitors. These findings serve as a strategic guideline for relevant agencies to effectively manage resources and infrastructure to accommodate the projected growth in tourism.

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DOI: 10.6119/JMST-011-1116-1